据哈特能源3月6日消息，Stratas Advisors的最新分析显示，尽管全球汽油销售量增长放缓，但预计到2020年，全球汽油需求仍将继续增长。

新注册的车辆数量比报废车辆的数量要多。Stratas Advisors预计，随着未来几年新汽油产量的上线，以及全球炼油产能的持续投资和扩张，汽油产量将继续增长。

Stratas Advisors全球汽车服务部经理Christopher Brown表示：“短期内，汽车行业的新注册量与宏观经济指标密切相关。我们看到世界新车登记数量略有减少的国家，它们的国家经济趋于平稳或已开始倒退。”

他补充道：“车辆增长、动力系统改变和经济前景都会影响到全国范围内的汽油需求。在全球范围内，车辆动态变化往往比新车登记速度慢，所以新车登记速度放缓并不一定意味着该国汽油总需求的下降。”

程张翔 编译自 哈特能源

原文如下：

Gasoline Production, Demand To Grow Through 2020

Despite declining sales growth worldwide gasoline demand is expected to continue to gain ground through 2020, according to a new analysis from Stratas Advisors.

New registrations are greater in volume than the number of vehicles that are exiting the fleet through scrappage. As new gasoline production comes on-line in the coming years, along with continued investment and expansion of refining capacity around the world, Stratas Advisors forecasts that the volume of gasoline produced will continue to grow.

“In the short term, new registrations in the automotive space are strongly tied to macroeconomic indicators. We see slight erosion in new registrations in countries around the world that are seeing their economies level off or begin to contract,” said Christopher Brown, manager of Stratas Advisors’ Global Automotive Service.

“Vehicle fleet growth, changing powertrain alignments, and economic fortunes all affect gasoline demand at the national level. Globally, vehicle fleet dynamics tend to move more slowly than new registrations, so a slowdown in new registrations does not necessarily mean a reduction in overall gasoline demand in that country,” he added.