据今日油价8月19日报道，研究公司BloombergNEF (BNEF)在其《2019年新能源展望》报告中表示，到2050年，全球对可再生能源发电的投资将远远超过对新化石燃料发电的投资，因此，可再生能源在全球发电中的份额将呈指数级增长。

据BNEF估计，在截至2050年的32年里，全球对新一代发电技术的投资将达到13.3万亿美元。在这13.3万亿美元中，高达77%的资金将用于可再生能源发电。

BNEF的分析显示，风能和太阳能将引领未来30年的可再生能源投资。到2050年，风力发电将吸引5.3万亿美元的投资，太阳能发电将吸引4.2万亿美元的投资，而电池方面的投资将达到8430亿美元。相比之下，到2050年，全球对新化石植物的投资将不会超过2万亿美元，到那时，每年的投资将在4160亿美元左右。

从现在开始到2050年，全球对新发电技术的投资将帮助建设15145千兆瓦的新型发电厂。报告称，在这一产能中，80%将实现零碳排放。

未来30年还将建设1666千兆瓦的非发电容量，如蓄电池和灵活的需求响应能力。在电池方面，BNEF在最近发表的另一份报告中预计，到2040年将有大量的新投资。

据最新的能源报告发现，清洁能源的容量和使用量不断增加，将导致未来20年全球固定能源储存的蓬勃发展，这将需要高达6620亿美元的总投资。根据BNEF的最新预测，到2040年，全球的储能设施预计将飙升至1095千兆瓦，即2850千瓦时，而截至2018年，容量仅为9千兆瓦/17千瓦时。

电池将有助于提高绿色发电能力，以融入电网。BNEF 2019年《新能源展望》称，风能和太阳能将大幅增长，到2032年，全球风能和太阳能发电量将超过燃煤发电量。

全球煤炭使用量将在2026年达到峰值，除亚洲以外，全球煤炭发电量将大幅下降。然而，即使在亚洲最大的市场——中国和印度——煤炭也将在未来几十年达到峰值，而这两个市场将在2050年前推动亚洲对可再生能源产能的投资。

从全球来看，到2050年，全球燃煤发电将减少51%，仅占全球电力供应的12%，而目前这一比例为27%。根据地区向可再生能源转型的速度，欧洲将成为领头羊。BNEF估计，到2040年，可再生能源将占欧洲电力结构的90%，其中风能和太阳能将占80%。

得益于政策支持和碳定价，欧洲主要经济体已经走上了脱碳之路。报告称，在美国，廉价的天然气发电厂，以及拥有现代燃煤电厂的中国，在脱碳速度上落后于欧洲。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Global Renewables Investment To Hit $13.3 Trillion By 2050

Global investments in renewable energy generation capacity will vastly outnumber investment in new fossil fuel-fired plants by 2050, as the share of renewables in the world’s generation capacity will grow exponentially, research company BloombergNEF (BNEF) says in its report New Energy Outlook 2019.

Investments in new generation capacity around the world is set to hit US$13.3 trillion over the 32 years to 2050, according to BNEF estimates. Of this US$13.3 trillion, as much as 77 percent will be investment earmarked for new electricity generation from renewable sources.

Wind and solar will lead the renewable investment over the next three decades, BNEF’s analysis showed.

Wind power is set to attract US$5.3 trillion in new generation by 2050, solar will see spending at US$4.2 trillion, while investments in batteries will amount to US$843 billion.

To compare, global investment in new fossil plants is set to not exceed US$2 trillion by 2050, which works out to around US$416 billion a year until then, according to BNEF’s estimates.

Global investment in new power generation capacity will help build 15,145 GW of new power plants between now and 2050. Of this capacity, 80 percent will be zero carbon, the report said.

Another 1,666 GW of non-generating capacity such as batteries and flexible capacity for demand response will be built over the next three decades.

In terms of batteries, BNEF expects a lot of new investments by 2040 in another recently published report.

Continuously falling battery costs, and rising capacity and usage of clean energy are set to result in booming global stationary energy storage over the next two decades, which will require total investments of as much as US$662 billion, according to the key findings of the latest report on new energies by BNEF. Energy storage installations across the world are expected to soar to 1,095GW, or 2,850GWh, by 2040, compared to a modest current deployment of just 9GW/17GWh as of 2018, according to BNEF’s latest forecasts.

Batteries will help growing green generation capacity to integrate into the grid.

Wind and solar will grow so much that by 2032, the world will have more wind and solar electricity than coal-fired electricity, BNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2019 said.

The use of coal will peak globally in 2026, and coal generation will collapse all around the world except for Asia. Yet, even in the biggest markets in Asia—China and India—coal will peak over the next decades, and those two markets will drive the Asian investment in renewable capacity by 2050, according to BNEF.

Globally, by 2050, coal-fired generation in the world will drop by 51 percent, supplying just 12 percent of the world’s electricity, compared to 27 percent today.

In terms of the pace of transition to renewables by region, Europe will be the leader, with renewable energy accounting for 90 percent of Europe’s electricity mix as early as by 2040, of which wind and solar will make up 80 percent, BNEF has estimated.

Major European economies are already on the road to decarbonization, thanks to policies supporting it and to carbon pricing.