据ICIS-MRC网站6月1日莫斯科报道， 根据路透援引咨询公司伍德麦肯兹（Wood Mackenzie）的声明称，全球能源转型正在为价值约14万亿美元的油气资产带来不确定性。尽管今年全球流感疫情加剧，但这些资产长期依赖需求的无限增长来抵消风险。

其在一份报告中表示，随着全球从新冠疫情中复苏，油气日需求量将超过2019年创下的1.6亿桶石油当量的纪录。

伍德麦肯兹表示，在经历了6年的油价下跌后，上游行业比以往任何时候都更健康、更精干。他补充称，今年该行业在每桶60美元的价格下将产生与2014年油价崩盘前每桶100美元时一样多的现金流。

伍德麦肯兹的副总裁Fraser McKay表示，尽管该行业已经享受了近一个世纪的需求持续增长，但其如今发现自己不得不向未来需求和价格高度不确定的世界供应石油和天然气。

据伍德麦肯兹称，能源逐步转型将令石油日需求在2050年前保持在9000万桶以上，鼓励投资于成本更高的供应，并在2030年前支撑油价在每桶略高于80美元的水平。

然而，如果世界决定到2050年将全球变暖控制在2摄氏度以内，石油需求将在2025年之前达到峰值，到2050年下降到3500万桶/天，比峰值水平低70%。到2030年，布伦特原油均价将达到每桶40美元，此后将继续下跌。

伍德麦肯兹表示，在这两种情况下，在亚洲煤炭替代的政策支持下，天然气需求和价格将保持弹性，并补充道这将吸引更多投资于天然气生产而不是石油。

第一种情况将使液化天然气价格在 2040 年及以后保持在每百万英热单位 8 - 9 美元，而在第二种情况下，液化天然气价格将保持在每百万英热单位7 - 8 美元，然后在2040年后开始下降。

郝芬 译自 ICIS-MRC

原文如下：

Global energy transition clouds oil-gas outlook despite post-pandemic boost this year

Global energy transition is creating uncertainty for an estimated USD14 trillion worth of oil and gas assets that have long depended on an indefinite rise in demand to offset risks despite a pandemic boost this year, reported Reuters with reference to consultancy Wood Mackenzie's statement.

As the world recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, oil and gas demand is set to go beyond the record 160 million barrels of oil equivalent per day reached in 2019, it said in a report.

“After six years of weaker prices, upstream is fitter and leaner than ever,” Woodmac said, adding that the sector will generate as much cash flow this year at USD60 per barrel as it did at USD100 prior to the 2014 price crash.

While the industry has enjoyed a century of near continuous demand growth, it now finds itself having to supply oil and gas to a world in which future demand and price are highly uncertain, Wood Mackenzie vice president Fraser McKay said.

A gradual energy transition would see oil demand staying above 90 million barrels per day to 2050, encouraging investment in costlier supplies and supporting prices at just above USD80 a barrel by 2030, Woodmac said.

However, if the world decides to limit global warming to 2 C by 2050, oil demand would peak before 2025 and fall towards 35 million bpd by 2050, 70% below peak levels. Brent would average USD40 a barrel by 2030 and decline after that.

In both scenarios, gas demand and prices would remain resilient, supported by coal displacement in Asia, Woodmac said, adding this would draw more investments toward gas production rather than oil.

The first scenario would keep liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices at USD8 to USD9 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) through 2040 and beyond, while in the second, LNG prices remain robust at USD7 to USD8 per mmBtu, before starting to fall post 2040.